Prospects of pair British pound/US dollar is still adverse, speak in Barclays Capital. In bank consider, that the balance of risks on steam is displaced towards fall and it is necessary to expect falling of pair to recent minima 1,4650 and 1,4605. Break below these marks will signal about resumption more significant descending trend also will aim pair at a minimum 1993 1,4075.
Estimate/Previous
10:00 EU(15) GDP (Q3) preliminary -0.2% -0.2%
10:00 EU(15) GDP (Q3) preliminary Y/Y 0.7% 1.4%
12:00 UK BoE meeting announcement 2.00% 3.00%
12:45 EU(15) ECB meeting announcement 2.75% 3.25%
13:30 EU(15) ECB press conference
13:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 29.11) - 529K
15:00 USA Factory orders (October) -2.6% -2.5%
Scale decrease in key interest rates by central banks Big tens this week, probably, will bring time improvement of moods and will render decreasing pressure upon US dollar and the Japanese yen, speak in DKIB. Nevertheless, bank doubt, that this effect will last long, and expect, that asset revaluation will proceed, that will render decreasing pressure upon highly remunerative assets and raw currencies. On Tuesday, the Reserve bank of Australia has lowered the interest rate on 100 basis points, and the market expects a lowering the interest rate of the Reserve bank of New Zealand on 150 basis points, the rate of Bank of England - not less than on 100 basis points and rates of the European central bank not less than on 50 basis points.
The pair the British pound/US dollar has punched support on 1,4770 and 1,4710, and level 1,4710 is the last boundary before recently reached minimum 1,4550, analyst Commerzbank Karen Johns speaks. On this minimum there is long-term support of Fibonacci which also is correction level on 61,8 % of a wave of growth of pair since 1984. By words Johns if level 1,4550 does not resist, pair will aim on 1,4180.
The euro/US dollar pair is inclined to growth and can reach again, at least, marks 1,2765 while bargains above key level 1,2565, speak in BNP Paribas. At pair growth above 1,2765 it is possible to expect growth to 1,2820 though the pair potential to growth is not so strong at present.
To a present situation activity indexes in sphere of services of Germany, the Euro zone and the Great Britain became known. All below forecasts. Reduction of volume of retails in the Euro zone also has exceeded expectations:-0,8 % at the forecast-0,4 %. Publications have allowed sellers EUR and GBP to \"satisfy\" requirement.
However, the basic intrigue, as usual recently, - in mood, which will prevail on share platforms of the USA.
The current situation again reminds of possibility of fundamental change of correlation between quotations USD, petroleum and share indexes of the USA. There is nobody not a secret, that petroleum will start to grow eventually, and a question now in share indexes and USD.
Basically, share indexes too can start to grow, as FED now is ready to be ready to do anything to make cheaper money. Mister B. Bernanke has already declared that the Federal Reserve System can start to redeem the state debt papers as decrease in rates has a limit. Usually similar actions lead to decrease in rates under credits and cause growth of share indexes. However, on the repayment of huge debts, money is necessary and money has such property, that they can be printed. By the way, leaders of Democratic Party in the Congress prepare a new large package of stimulating measures, which can make more than $500 billion Again money. Bottom signs it is not visible. The volume of necessary means for economy maintenance all grows and grows. And from here the effect from price reduction of money can appear insignificant.
About publications.
At 13:30 GMT, the revised significance of labor efficiency in the USA for III quarter Moscow time is expected. The forecast: 0,9 %. The previous significance of 1,1 %. More in detail about this interesting indicator in the special article «In expectation of data of macroeconomic statistics».
At 15:00 GMT significance of an index for non-productive sector (ISM non-manufacturing), the USA for November will be published. The forecast: 42,0, the previous significance: 44,4.
At 15:35 GMT, the Department of Energy of the USA will publish weekly data on power resources as of November 28. As they say, without comments.
At 19:00 GMT. The federal reserve system of the USA will publish «the Beige book», testifying to a condition of the American economy. Basically, all is already told by \"the previous orators», but quite add emotions the publication can. False courses of quotations on FOREX are not excluded.
The new reference points, capable to set a direction to the auctions in the currency market, have not appeared. Therefore, quotations of the basic currency pairs practically were not changed, share indexes in the USA and Japan have moderately grown, and petroleum prices have jumped aside from a new minimum for three and a half a year. Apparently, probable decrease in key interest rates of ÅCB and Bank of England together with data expected on Friday on employment in the USA act calming down on the currency market, thus leading world currencies bargain in a lateral trend. Index DJIA following the results of the auctions on Tuesday has grown on 3,3 %, and index Nikkei on Wednesday has grown on 1,8 %.
The unwillingness index to risk, expected in UBS, on Wednesday has made 1,88, it is a little having decreased with significance of Tuesday 1,91, but still is in the territory signaling about unwillingness to risk. The last change is caused, basically, decrease of volatility stock quotes, speak in UBS.
The US dollar has decreased in area of a five-week minimum against the Japanese yen at the auctions in Asia on Wednesday as the investors disturbed by destiny of auto building of sector of the USA, sold pair dollar/yen. Later during session, the dollar managed to return a part of the lost items thanks to purchases from the Japanese pension funds.
As of 08.50 GMT on FOREX the pair dollar/yen bargained on 93,35-40, euro/dollar pair - on
1,2701-04, euro/yen pair - on 118,60-64, pair the British pound/dollar - on 1,4918-21, pair dollar / the Swiss franc - on 1,2077-80.
The American investors sold dollar in view of concern development of a situation round three conducting auto-building companies of the USA, dealers speak. Together with inquiry about rendering of a government aid of the company, the plans on re-structuring have submitted the Congress of the USA. According to market participants, in the market doubts that efforts of the companies will crown success are still saved.
These sales have provoked falling of pair dollar/yen to a mark 92,86 which is near to the five-week minimum 92,64 reached on Tuesday.
Possibility for purchase of the American currency when it began to bargain below 93,00 yens was presented to the Japanese pension funds, dealers mark. These purchases have soon developed dollar, and then together with purchases of market participants with the purposes of hedging of options, have allowed it to grow to level of closing of the previous New York session.
Nevertheless, according to dealers, potential to the further growth of the American currency remains a little.
\"On Wednesday the dollar will not exceed level of 94,00 yens because in the market the considerable quantity of orders on sale of pair from not Japanese Asian investors\" is exhibited, - the senior dealer from Nomura Securities speaks Hirisi Ìàåbà.
Actually, the balance of risks for pair dollar/yen is displaced towards decrease as investors expect, that planned to the publication later this week economic data will appear weak, the dealer from Brown Brothers Harriman Investment Services marks Nobuaki Êubî.
\"The economic is slowed down, and economic data will confirm, most likely, this point of view\", - he speaks.
Among data, it is possible to mention report ADP on number of jobs in fair sector of the USA. According to the forecast of the economists interrogated Dow Jones Newswires, the number of jobs according to ADP in November will be reduced on 205 000 after reduction on 157 000 in October. Also later during current session, the compound non-productive index of Institute of management by deliveries /ISM/ for November will be published.
The yen which takes recently strong items in view of low degree of propensity of investors to risk, hardly will weaken as soon as possible, adds Êubî.
\"Many investors, possibly, will try to invest means in assets of the countries, - speaks Êubî. - Trade on a difference between interest rates, most likely, will not be renewed yet\".
Meanwhile, the euro has grown against dollar and yen. This growth has been caused by correction of items by investors in expectation of announcement on Thursday of decisions of ÅCB and Bank of England under interest rates.
According to dealers, market participants prefer not to open risky items on the threshold of promulgation of decisions under rates.
\"Market participants agree in opinion, that ÅCB and Bank of England will go on significant decrease in interest rates, however among them there are disagreements concerning concrete figures\", - the head speaks Yudsi Saito, Currency department of Societe Generale.
The descending trend for euro still is valid and can be reinstated in the event that data on a condition of the European economy, which will be promulgated during current session, will appear adverse. Among indicators including data on retails in a Euro zone in October are expected.
The Australian dollar has become stronger in the end of the Asian session on Wednesday, having restored a part of the items lost earlier on this week thanks to moderate growth of stock quotes in the USA and Australia, which signaled about strengthening of propensity to risk.
Nevertheless, analysts say, that, as well as new reference points in the form of macroeconomic or financial news that it could are necessary to other currencies, Australian dollar fall outside the limits a range in which bargains recently.
The data published earlier on Wednesday under gross national product of Australia have demonstrated that the country managed to avoid recession in III quarter. The condition of economy of Australia is hardly better, than at many other things the developed countries though data under gross national product which have coincided with the forecast of economists, do not remove fears concerning sharp slowing down of growth of the Australian economy the next months.
As of 08.30 GMT pair the Australian dollar/US dollar on 0,6449 against 0,6369 in the end of the auctions on Tuesday.
The pair the Australian dollar / the Japanese yen bargained on 60,125 against 59,325.
According to Richard Grays, senior currency strategist-analyst Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the Australian dollar rate varies depending on propensity of investors to risk and from a situation on world equity markets, but dependence of the Australian currency on share indexes of the USA starts to decrease slowly.
\"In the market the significant compelled failure of extra means in the market is observed, but the compelled sales of currencies for repatriation to Japan or in the USA are not present, - speaks Grays. - easing of dependence of /exchange from stock quotes/ and consequently the auctions in the currency markets pass in very narrow ranges now can begin\".
According to Grays, pair the Australian dollar/US dollar, possibly to bargain in wider range 0,60-0,70, yet will not receive new reference points for the auctions.
However, in short-term prospect, probable decrease in the key interest rate by Bank of England and the European central bank this week, probably, will support the American dollar.
For pair the Australian dollar/US dollar predicts support on 0,6335.
«What were decisions of Bank of England and ÅCB concerning interest rates, in my opinion, hardly on their background of steam will fall outside the limits a range. Any other factor is necessary for this purpose», - he speaks.
Probably, that one of the factors, capable to set a direction of the auctions for pair the Australian dollar/US dollar inauguration of the new US president of Barrack Îbama in January of next year after which he can approve legislatively new measures on tax-budgetary stimulation.
The New Zealand dollar bargained almost without changes and in a narrow range on Wellington sessions on Wednesday before on Thursday the decision of the Reserve bank of New Zealand under interest rates becomes known.
The majority of traders and economists expect, that RBNZ will lower interest rates on 150 basis points for economy stimulation however, probability of that the rate will be reduced by 100 basis points, also is considered.
Opinions of traders how the New Zealand dollar will react to decrease in rate of RBNZ were divided. Robert String, the dealer from Tricom, considers, that in a case of less significant decrease in the rate the New Zealand dollar can jump aside, especially if in the market short items prevail. However, other market participants consider more scale decrease in the rate by the positive factor for the New Zealand currency with allowance for that it will improve prospects of economy of New Zealand.
Economists from Barclays Capital Research say, that even if participants of a money market almost completely consider probability of decrease in rate of RBNZ on 150 basis points, \"we still consider, that the New Zealand dollar in this case not without the bases will sell, and the pair the New Zealand dollar/US dollar will come nearer to our target three-month level 0,5000\" more.
According to economists, the market has forgotten on the New Zealand dollar, as investors prefer to sell Australian dollar in reply to gloomy estimations of economic, as liquidity of the auctions on the New Zealand dollar is very low.
Though both Australian and the New Zealand dollar have fallen in price approximately on 35 % on comparison with the maxima, the economy of New Zealand is in more pitiable condition, than Australian, considers
The majority of economists. It means that the New Zealand dollar will fall still.
Economists from Barclays add that the economy of New Zealand seriously suffers from credit crisis in the world as it is largely focused on export.
The pair US dollar / the JAPANESE yen can remain any time around 93,00 because of \"delta-hedging\" under the bargains connected with options, in the conditions of low volume of the auctions, speak some the senior dealers in Tokyo. Period of validity of many options with a strike on 93,00 expires on Wednesday. It is expected, that sellers of these options will purchase pair if it falls more low 93,00, and will sell in case of growth above 93,00, being hedged from risks for options.
The petroleum price slowly, but truly continues movement to a mark 40. Following the results of the auctions on NYMEX January futures for delivery of petroleum of mark WTI have fallen in price to $46,96 for barrel under cover all the same primitive idea about reduction in demand for petroleum. Thus, the president of the OPEC has declared yesterday the \"hot\" desire that Russia, Norway and Mexico have joined petroleum cartel in common to support stability in the petroleum world market. Such offers can be considered as a method of care from the American influence.
Concerning recession in the USA \"informants\" were switched on the subject of «as long already there is a recession». And if to consider average due dates of a life of ideas, 3 - 6 months market participants by the end of I quarter 2009 are waited by one of two: «to economy of the USA has carried also it leaves recession» or «serial continuation». From here, directions of possible strong movements on FOREX.
The American share indexes were closed by growth. A main occasion – is optimistically application General Electric Co. About plans to save in 2009 payment of dividends. On the message of the share of corporation have added 13,3 % in the price and have pulled behind itself other securities.
However, the pleasure could not block and half of previous falling, as still pressing question of \"survival\" of American \"auto three\". Plans are presented to the congress of the USA by the present moment on the re-structuring of the companies providing allocation by the American government in general to $34 billion of Hearing on the given question will pass on Thursday and Friday. In case of the positive decision, voting can take place on Monday. And it means, that volatility on equity market of the USA will remain till indicated time high and to be characterized by unpredictability. From here - behavior of currency pairs on FOREX.
Let\'s notice, that the markets it is inconsistent have apprehended the yesterday\'s application of head of FED B. Bernanke that new special strategy for economy revival in conditions when the key interest rate is close to a zero mark can be undertaken. It is characteristic, that in yesterday\'s performance the especial accent has been made on house keeping: «House keeping continues to save, that will lead to a new slashing of consumer spending in the fourth quarter». We spoke about an essence and consequences of the given process in last premarket.
It is sad, but in parallel with intriguing applications for \"special\" methods from party FRS of the USA outflow of means from all without an exception of economy in a direction of the USA proceeds, than and the governments are disturbed.
About publications.
Today significances of indexes of activity in sphere of services (PMI Services) for Germany, the Euro zone and the Great Britain for November are expected. The given indicators supplement earlier published indexes of activity in the industrial sphere, appeared worse forecasts.
08:55 GMT - Germany - the forecast: 46,2, the previous significance: 49,3.
09:00 GMT - the Euro zone - the forecast: 43,3, the previous significance: 45,8.
09:30 GMT - the Great Britain - the forecast: 41,0, the previous significance: 42,4.
At 10:00 GMT, data on change of volume of retails of the Euro zone in October will be published. Before, there were negative data on retails in Germany. Experts predict, that significance of an indicator has decreased on 0,4 % in month expression. On the one hand, data important as characterize level of consumer spending and demand and can indicate further dynamics of gross national product, on the other hand, in them there is no novelty as they are published for a month before last.
In summary. On eyes, the following information published by company Forexpf that should be disregarded has got. The funds specializing on currency trade, have received in October the greatest month profit since 2003, informs Parker Global Strategies LLC, tracing 71 fund under which management are over $36 billion. The champion became Henry International Foreign Exchange Program of Boca Raton, Florida with the income in 32,7 %. We will remind, Florida is staff in the USA.
Good morning! The FIBO-Group analytical department is glad to welcome you on our site!
Comments, reviews and market analyses are based on direct opinion of analysts of the company, and on materials CQG, Reuters, Bloomberg, Praim - TASS, DOW JOHNES. On all questions connected with a published material, and your offers you can send on E-mail: cfd@fibogroup.com
Good morning! The FIBO-Group analytical department is glad to welcome you on our site!
Comments, reviews and market analyses are based on direct opinion of analysts of the company, and on materials CQG, Reuters, Bloomberg, Praim - TASS, DOW JOHNES. On all questions connected with a published material, and your offers you can send on E-mail: cfd@fibogroup.com
The euro/US dollar pair now bargains in the middle of a range and intraday schedules indicate that the pair will bargain in a range 1,25-1,2750 within day or about that, speak in Barclays Capital. While the pair bargains more low 1,28, in bank its decrease to 1,2450 whereas falling more low 1,2390 will signal that the auctions in a range were finished also pair, possibly expect, will decrease to 1,20-1,1850.
Estimate/Previous
08:45 Italy PMI services (November) 43.6 45.7
08:50 France PMI services (November) 46.6 47.5
08:55 Germany PMI services (November) seasonally adjusted 46.2 48.3
09:00 EU(15) PMI services (November) 43.3 45.8
09:30 UK CIPS services index (November) 41.3 42.4
10:00 EU(15) Retail sales (October) adjusted - -0.2%
10:00 EU(15) Retail sales (October) adjusted Y/Y - -1.6%
13:15 USA ADP employment (November) -170K -157K
13:30 USA Productivity (Q3) revised 1.0% 1.1%
13:30 USA Unit labour cost (Q3) revised - 3.6%
15:00 USA ISM Non-mfg composite index (November) 42.8 44.4
15:00 USA ISM Non-mfg business index (November) - 44.2
19:00 USA Fed Beige book
20:00 New Zealand RBNZ meeting announcement 5.50% 6.50%
The invisible hand continues to keep EUR above reached before minima. It is thought, that such state of affairs will be saved not only before meeting of ÅCB on Thursday, but also before committee meeting on open markets FRS of the USA, nominated to December, 15-16th.
In the meantime, the situation in the USA leaves from under the control. Now the collapse in the market of credit cards about which possibility it was spoken in the previous premarkets is predicted. We will remind, that the given market reflects an essence of such concept as \"debts\" in huge scale. We will notice that debts of the USA consist of four components: public debts, municipal debts, corporate debts and family debts. When analysts speak about more than 11 billion dollars of a debt it is a question only of the first part. Last which, by the way, reflects the market credit cards, much more the first. Under forecasts, volume of demand lines of credit in the nearest year - ones and a half will be reduced to 45 %. Here the match is mortgaged now that the soap bubbles of gross national product of the USA blow up at the expense of consumer and real estates have blown up.
Separate states \"have begun to wail\". In particular, the governor of California A. Schwarzenegger on Monday declared an extreme economic situation in staff. In a case if offered emergency measures will not be accepted (and opponents here more than supporting) in February 2009 staff remains without cash.
Petroleum quotations have given in to earlier sounded scenario of decrease to $40 dollars for barrel and more low. Return the market to comprehensible levels now the same speculative structures, which sell short as the big means, and the \"technical\" possibilities, which are available only they are for this purpose necessary can only. Probably, for this reason the OPEC so is pessimistic and reminds a gun, shooting single, after all actually has no effective tooling for regulation of the raw market. Members of the OPEC, obviously, understand that return of quotations will occur only after hour’s speculative items to \"profit\". Time ranges of an event as are usually dated for «sign events».
Today the Minister of Finance of the USA H. Polson again will talk. Will act within the limits of the American-Chinese strategic economic dialogue. Performance is planned at 15:30 GMT. Will continue to press to China? Or tone will a little be changed?
At 16:30 GMT, head of FED Philadelphia Plosser will act in the American city of Rochester. C. Plosser\'s speech will be devoted economy questions.
It is characteristic, that else in the summer of a current year all these officials together with IMF shouted \"hurrah\" to economy of the USA, and now agree that recession in economy proceeds a year. Where is the truth?
If to you earlier on Tuesday has had the luck to open long positions on steam the British pound/US dollar nearby 1,48 now when the pair bargains on 1,4915, it is a high time to reduce them, one of traders speaks. The trader notices, that usually it is necessary pound uneasy at the New York session. As he said, any turn of stock quotes, which at present are in positive territory, will negatively affect the relation of investors to risk and on the British currency.
Scale decrease in the key interest rate by the Reserve bank of Australia hardly will stop Australian dollar falling.
Considering that the world markets pursue fears of a deflation, and the unwillingness of investors to risk is saved, the Australian currency, possibly, again will fall to a recent minimum 0,60 US dollars or even more low.
\"We believe, that the pair the Australian dollar/US dollar to fall to 0,60 to the middle of 2009\", - speaks Tom Levinson, the currency strategist-analyst from ING Financial Markets in London.
As well as other analysts, Levinson is especially disturbed by worsening prospects of economic. He says, that RBÀ \"a little that can make to prevent the further decrease in Australian dollar if expectations of the markets concerning activity in economic worsen even more. Thus prospects of economic growth of the countries of Asia, probably, require more significant revision\".
Besides fears it is rather brave recessions in Japan, the market participants having items on Australian dollar, news from China, second large largely disturb the trading partner of Australia after Japan.
Falling of an index of managers on supply in China to a record minimum in November, and also a slashing of new orders, was generated by difficulties for raw currencies in general and for Australian dollar in
Particulars.
John Hard, the currency strategist-analyst from Saxo Bank in London, notices that till now the Australian dollar got support thanks to a price stabilization on primary goods and growth of stock quotes.
\"This support can appear under the threat this week, and fears concerning economy of China can strengthen pressure upon Australian dollar\", - speaks Hard, signaling about that clients opened short items on Australian dollar.
\"If moods of participants of equity market and the market of primary goods this week again to worsen, the pair the Australian dollar/US dollar, will be vulnerable to falling, at least, to the bottom border of a range\", - he adds.
The Australian dollar, most likely, will decrease, despite decision of RBÀ declared on Tuesday to lower the key interest rate on 100 basis points to 4,25 % in attempt to stimulate economy.
The data published on Monday have shown, that the index of managers on supply for industrial sector of Australia has fallen to the lowest level since 1992, and inflation has sharply decreased to 3,0 % from 3,9 %. These data testify that so scale lowering the interest rate of RBÀ - to 4,25 % from 5,25 % - is justified. Thus, RBÀ all for six months leveled almost all increase of interest rates, which has been undertaken for the last six years.
Nevertheless, it is expected, that the economy of Australia remain under pressure.
Strategists-analysts from BNP Paribas indicate saved problems with crediting.
\"Crediting growth in a private sector continues to be slowed down. Thus crediting of private persons has fallen to 0,1 % in comparison with the same period of previous year that became the first annual decrease since 1993\", - strategists-analysts declare.
\"Considering, that the indebtedness of house economy to gross national product makes 158 %, sharp slowing down of growth of crediting considerably will do much harm to economy of Australia\", - they add.
Thus, even being the optimists believing that there is a probability of growth of pair the Australian dollar/US dollar 0,70 in short-term prospect, economists from BNP Paribas have not enough hope of its growth in more long-term prospect.
\"In intermediate term prospect we expect, that the Australian dollar will continue to decrease\", - they speak.
Pair falling the British pound/US dollar on Monday was serious, but the pair still has potential to growth, consider in BNP Paribas. On Tuesday of steam has again tested for durability and has punched support 1,4805. Bargaining below this level, the pair will be aimed on 1,4705 before its correctional growth to 1,4985 will begin.
Significant falling of stock quotes on Monday testifies in favor of that chances of growth of propensity to risk to a close of the year have practically disappeared, speak in RBS. Though correlation between US dollar and risk negative, comments of chairman of FED Bernanke on purchases of securities by the Ministry of Finance of the USA have strengthened fears of investors that the money supply will fast grow in the USA. Besides, fears concerning long recession in the USA increase risk of that a stream of the capital which appears in communication with failure of use of extra means, starts to flow in an opposite direction. At such scenario the Japanese yen is a leading world currency in the conditions of risk, speak in bank, and recommend to sell pair US dollar / the JAPANESE yen.
Australian dollar become easier in the end of the Asian session against a slashing of quotations of Americans after their growth last week. It testifies that significant intensity in real sector of economy continues to amplify.
The decision of the Reserve bank of Australia to lower the key interest rate at monthly meeting on Tuesday has given some support for Australian dollar. However many economists expect, that the Australian dollar will continue to bargain in a descending trend in short-term prospect.
Whereas RBÀ has lowered the key interest rate on one percentage item to 4,25 %, the accompanying application of a central bank testifies to slowing down of rate of softening of a monetary policy the next months. Economists expected, that ÐÁÀ will lower the interest rate on three quarters of percentage item
As of 08.55 GMT, pair the Australian dollar/US dollar on 0,6369 against 0,6480. The pair the Australian dollar / the Japanese yen bargained on 59,325 against 61,755.
Senior economist ICAP Adam Karr expects, that pair the Australian dollar/US dollar some support in area 0,6350 at the auctions outside of Australia. Break of this level will signal about new support on a mark 0,6200.
\"The Australian dollar is in a stable descending trend, and I expect, that this trend will be saved today, and also within the next few days\", - he speaks.
One more stream of the adverse economic data published on Monday, has worsened moods on world equity markets. According to data of Institute of management of deliveries, the activity index in industrial sphere in November has fallen to 36,2 against 38,9 in October. Economists expected falling of an index to 37,0.
Besides, the application of the chairman of Federal reserve system of the USA of Ben Bernanke for central bank transition to a policy of quantitative softening of a monetary policy has strengthened the reinstated excitements in the market.
The index reflecting unwillingness to risk, expected in UBS, has made on Tuesday 1,91 against 1,81 on Monday, signaling about unwillingness increase to risk. The last changes have been caused, basically, growth of volatility share indexes and increase in spreads on highly remunerative assets, speak in UBS.
The New Zealand dollar on Wellington session on Tuesday has demonstrated sharp falling the second day successively against appreciable decrease in stock quotes.
Amplifying fears concerning economy, which force investors to sell shares of the companies, usually involve also sales of the New Zealand dollar, which has sharply fallen in price against US dollar and the Japanese yen.
\"Index Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday has fallen to 7,7 %, and this circumstance, mainly, has provoked sales of the New Zealand currency\", - main dealer of ANZ Bank Murray Hindly speaks.
The pair the New Zealand dollar/US dollar to a session minimum 0,5252 is the lowest level since November 21.
Moods in the market have worsened and against the application of the Reserve bank of Australia which has lowered the interest rate on 100 basis points, thereby having signaled about that, economy of the Asian region became how much weak.
Economists expect that on Thursday the Reserve bank of New Zealand will lower the rate even more - on 150 basis points.
According to Hindly, decrease in rate of RBÀ and expected decrease in interest rates by the European central bank, Bank of England and RBNZ should promote stimulation of economic growth and internal demand. However, falling of stock quotes will continue to make negative impact on the currency market. Near-term outlooks of the New Zealand dollar depend on index DJIA, has noted Hindly.
Danika Hampton, currency strategist-analyst Bank of New Zealand, says that the reinstated fears concerning possibility of deep and long recession induce investors to refuse such currencies, as the New Zealand dollar, which in many respects depend on economic growth rate, in favor of more safe currencies.
Hampton considers that decrease in interest rates by leading central banks this week will be considered only as acknowledgement of a terrifying condition of economic.
\"While fears concerning recession in economic prevail, and the world equity market remains under pressure, to steam the New Zealand US dollar/US dollar difficultly\", - has told Hampton.
The US dollar has jumped aside from a month minimum against the Japanese yen at the auctions in Asia on Tuesday that partly spoke purchases of pair dollar/yen at falling by the Japanese importers and commercial firms. At the same time, some dealers still consider, that the yen will grow, as world investors refuse the assets connected with risks.
As of 08.00 GMT on FOREX the pair dollar/yen bargained on 93,16-21, euro/dollar pair - on 1,2617-21, euro/yen pair - on 117,57-61, pair the British pound/dollar - on 1,4864-67, and pair dollar/Swiss franc - on 1,2044-49.
Besides, the dollar has continued to grow against currencies of the Asian countries that has induced central banks of Philippines, to Malaysia and India again to sell dollar for the purpose of maintenance of national currencies, dealers inform. Recently many Asian countries should struggle with the growing dollar to limit imported inflation and to prevent scale falling of national currencies.
The euro has a little grown against dollar and yen, however expectations of significant decrease in interest rates of the European central bank and Bank of England on Thursday forced traders to put on fall of uniform European currency. More scale, than was expected, decrease in interest rates of the Reserve bank of Australia to 4,25 % during the Asian session has only strengthened expectations of market participants concerning resolute actions from central banks in Europe, traders speak.
At the Australian session of steam dollar/yen in system EBS has for a short while decreased to 92,87 against 93,07 in the end of the New York session on Monday. It is the lowest level for pair since October, 28th when it has fallen to 92,48. Fears round possible deepening the recessions strengthened on Monday by falling of stock quotes on Wall Street, and also the publication of adverse economic data in Canada and China, promoted closing of the items connected at risk, including such items in which the yen is used as extra means, traders speak.
Later during session the dollar has jumped aside in area of 93,50 yens that has been caused by purchases of the Japanese importers and commercial firms, and also one Tokyo bank, closely related with farmers, dealers mark. Moreover, speculators began to close short items on steam for profit fixing. Nevertheless, falling of the American currency in the beginning of the auctions has forced some traders to think, that some time dollar will decrease.
\"In wider plan, it is possible to tell, that the market has entered the next phase of strong yen\" against dollar and other currencies, speaks Òåcuhisa Hayasi, the head of the currency auctions in Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. Against amplifying fears concerning a condition of economic and bank sector \"the tendency to reduction of used extra means in the markets is saved, no less than closing of items in which the yen represents itself as extra means\" proceeds, he adds.
According to Hayasi, it is quite probable, that the trading range on steam dollar/yen was displaced to 90,00-95,00 with 95,00-100,00.
The euro/yen pair also has jumped aside to 118,15 with 117,23, a minimum for the one and a half week, reached earlier during session.
The uniform European currency bargained in a range 1,2580-1,2652 dollars.
Signs of promptly worsening situation in economy of Europe mean, that by the end of a current year target levels for euro are for 1,2000 dollars and 110,00 yens, speaks Hayasi. In the meantime, in note BNP Paribas addressed to clients it is said, that the uniform European currency can grow, as the governmental measures directed on stabilization of a situation in the restless markets, already are realized, promoting strengthening of demand of investors on risky assets, such as euro.
The American share indexes on Monday have fallen off against a worsening macroeconomic picture of some the states. Significance of American industrial index ISM in November has made 36,2 against the forecast 37,5. Thus, falling has proceeded below record marks. Besides already mentioned yesterday\'s reporting across Germany and the Great Britain, pessimism has added the Chinese index of activity in industrial sector which in October has decreased to 33,8 items. Thus, the official veil for further \"courses\" of equity market was generated. Hearings have joined it that emitters of credit cards in the USA, probably, will reduce demand lines of credit to the sum $2 bln. in the following of 18 months. If this information is materialized, the slashing of consumer activity becomes result, that long-term and will essentially affect gross national product. The coin box of ideas of decrease in equity market was filled up with forecasts about decrease in profit and writing off in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. And Morgan Stanley in IV quarter.
Considering the given theme, it is necessary to note fair concern of the Russian government (and not only Russian) concerning decrease in stock quotes of the companies. We will notice that behind a screen of falling of world equity market repartition of share assets arises. And, probably, to it also conducted \"unknown\" forces. Imagine at least such banal situation. Certain joint-stock company \"NN\" before crisis has acquired foreign credits and furthermore has extended, having bought productions in other countries. To a present situation, credit possibilities have appeared hardly cut down, and stock quotes hardly low. As a result, it is necessary to pay for outstanding credit debts in \"maintenance\" which settles proceeding from current quotations. The plot is twirled dashing. « Current stock quotes of the Russian companies is an ugly and unfair phenomenon as purchasing decisions or sale of papers starting outside of the Russian Federation by the criteria poorly connected with a real state of affairs in the country »- such is opinion of the prime minister of V. Putin. Awfully, but today situations, when value of assets of the Russian companies at exchange below volume of means on an enterprise abacus are known.
Petroleum \"diversion\" also finds continuation under cover of a divergence of the OPEC. It is sick terms of the next meeting (on December 17) coincide with the termination of next meeting of FED (15 - on December 16).
And what co-authors of world performance thus speak? The chairman of Federal reserve system of the USA Ben Bernanke has called yesterday for resolute actions on protection of the American economy and has declared, that FED is ready to purchase directly securities and to support the markets. Only on what money? To the most interesting in application of Bernanke it seems possibility of the further decrease in rates and use of no conventional methods of the help to economic growth. We will notice that, on hearings, non-traditional differs and B. Obama\'s preparing financially budgetary plan which he should declare right after inaugurations on January 20. In it is a danger.
Regarding USD the phrase is allocated: «Though the traditional policy of discount rates is limited by that nominal discount rates cannot fall below zero, the second arrow in quiver FED, liquidity granting, remains effective». I.e. liquidity all the same can be granted in great volume. Probably, it will print on a paper.
Under curtain Bernanke has warned, that it is not necessary to expect fast recover of economy.
And, at last, US president George Bush has made yesterday public apologies for everything that occurs, but has thus noticed, that «when the history of this period will be written, people will understand, that the majority of decisions which have been made on Wall Street, started for a decade or more until» when it became the president. That all eight years of board of Bush «the green corridor» for world financial gamble acted, it is held back.
About the further events, this will affect volatility on FOREX. Current week on December 4 the European central bank, Bank of England and the Reserve bank of New Zealand will make of the decision concerning key interest rates. The reserve bank of Australia by the present moment has already lowered the interest rate on 100 basis points. Now it makes 4,25 %. RBÀ also has let know, that wishes to take a pause in monetary policy softening to wait results, before to reduce rates again.
The bank of Japan has kept today the rate at level of 0,3 %.
Expectations of decrease in interest rates of analytics project on the currency market, predicting easing of currencies against USD. However, it is necessary to notice, that decrease in interest rates far not always render decreasing action on corresponding currency. It is necessary to differentiate the periods when the rate of exchange is influenced by a difference in interest rates and when the basic accent is done on macroeconomic aspects. For now, to the announcement of decisions of meetings, the market can pass in an expectation condition.
Let\'s remind, that according to the application of officials of Australia, pessimistic forecasts concerning economy of Australia, at least, are unreasonable. And it concerns not only Australia.
About publications in the European session.
At 10:00 GMT, significance of a price index of manufacturers of the Euro zone (Producer Prices index - PPI) for October is expected. The forecast: decrease on 0,2 % in month expression and increase at 7,1 % in annual expression. The index reflects dynamics of change of the prices on which sell the goods national manufacturers at wholesale level of realization. The prices for production of all stages of production are included in a price index of manufacturers (a staple price, on production of a work in progress and the price for finished goods), and also data on other sectors which are distinct from the industry (agriculture, sphere of services) are included.
In summary. The Treasury of the Russian Federation on Monday has presented following data: the volume of means of the Surplus fund as of December 1 has made 3 bln. 661 billion rbl. that is equivalent $132,63 billion; the volume of Fund of national well-being has appeared 2 bln. 108 billion rbl. is equal or $76,38 billion. Given information in the present premarket is resulted to carry out comparison of the indicated volumes with necessary volumes for restoration of economy of the USA. The most nearest comparison is: $700 billion according to the plan of \"rescue\" of H. Polson. In parallel this plan there are some more multi-billion plans. B. Obama\'s plan prepares. It too will be rather big. Besides a question: where money? Really as in a joke: «On a bedside table»?
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Estimate/Previous
03:30 Australia RBA meeting announcement - 5.25%
10:00 EU(15) PPI (October) - -0.2%
10:00 EU(15) PPI (October) Y/Y - 7.9%
13:55 USA Redbook (29.11)
Closing on Friday, the New Zealand dollar/US dollar signals, that the pair remains in a descending trend especially whereas shares are still involved in a descending spiral, speak in Barclays Capital. In short-term prospect of steam of steam can fall to 0,5275 though below this level there is a risk of falling to recent minima 0,5180. This level should become support for pair in short-term prospect.
