REVIEW 3-12-2008

Stocks
On Tuesday, on December 2, Americans following the results of a trading session have demonstrated growth thanks to company General Electric that have kept the dividend invariable and initiating wave of optimism against a shaky economic situation. Restoration noted also a financial sector - FED has expanded a package of measures on rescue of bank sector. Increase of indicator S&P financial on 8 % was helped by papers Citigroup and Bank of America, jumped up in the price almost on 12 %. Nevertheless, growth of shares GE which has shot on 13,6 % to 17,61 dollars, on comments of representatives on planned reduction of quantity of jobs at maintenance of target level of the dividend invariable became the brightest event of the trading session which has passed in the USA.

Following the results of day index Dow Jones industrial average has grown up on 270.00 items or 3,31 % to level 8 419,09. Indicator Standard and Poor's 500 has become stronger on 32,60 items or 3,99 % to 848,81. Hi-tech NASDAQ Composite "became heavier" on 51,73 items or 3,70 %, having concerned on closing of a mark 1 499,80. After decrease during the auctions on Monday of a paper of power sector have gone upwards. So, shares Chevron have grown up almost on 5 % to level of 75,54 dollars, papers Exxon Mobil have made an ascension more than on 4 % to 77,61 dollars. Manufacturers of cars showed strong volatility - company General Motors has informed on falling of sales of cars in the USA on 41 % in November. However by the end of day of the share have gone upward - GM on 6 % to 4,85 dollars, Ford Motor also on 6 % to 2,70 dollars. Heads of three automobile giants of the USA, including Chrysler, intend shortly to present the plan justifying an investment 25 bln of dollars in the industry.

Recommendations about trade S&P500. Trade on Tuesday passed with increase in a range 813. Apparently on the day schedule the price on S&P500 still is below the important resistance at level of 1255.0 items 998.0 of sliding average with the period 55 on the day schedule (the day schedule see), as possesses to price cut as trade still passes in frameworks of a long-term descending trend originating since July, 2007. Sliding averages on indicator ADX on 4-hour schedule mutually decrease. Force of a trend thus dies away and makes 19 items that indicate absence /an accurate/ spirit in the market in short-term prospect.

The negative moment for /bulls/ is now that fact, that the price for share index S&P500 is above sliding average with the period 55 on 4 hour schedule (level 845.00, see on 4-hour schedule) and it in short-term prospect will show resistance to the price. Lines Bollinger Bands on 4-hour schedule have started to be developed downwards, as well as on the day schedule that indicates the further price cut in intermediate term prospect. On the day schedule, indicator ADX indicates that sliding averages disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a trend thus has a little grown and makes 26 items that indicates possibility of strengthening of the descending tendency in the market. After the price on S&P500 has /powerlessly/ fallen below support at level 862.0 where average passes simple sliding on the day schedule, most possibly further price cut to the following support at level 770.0. Support levels: 822.0, 770.0, 720.0. Resistance levels: 845.0, 862.0, 907.50, 998.0, 1007.0, 1068.0, 1202.0, 1255.0.

Bond market
Treasuries fell as US efforts to combat a deepening recession buoyed stocks around the world, eroding demand for government debt with yields at record lows.

Government securities declined for the first time in more than a week as two-year notes yielded less than the Federal Reserve’s target for overnight bank lending and three-month bill rates were 0.05%. Asian high-yield, high-risk corporate bonds rose, indicating waning demand for sovereign debt.

Crude oil
Crude oil prices on Tuesday have fallen to a minimum for some years against concern world demand in the market. Following the results of the auctions on the New York commodity exchange /New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX/ quotations of January futures on easy low sulfur petroleum have fallen to 2,32 dollars, or on 4,7 %, to 46,96 dollars for barrel that became the lowest level since May, 20th, 2005. Quotations of futures on petroleum of mark Brent on ICE in London have decreased for 2,53 dollars to 45,44 dollars for barrel. Reduction of prices on petroleum has been celebrated the second day successively after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on last days off has decided not to change oil extracting levels, having postponed any similar decision before following meeting which will take place on December, 17th. It raises prospects of growth of stocks of petroleum against reduction in demand.

The president of OPEC Shahib Helil on Tuesday has called Russia, Norway and Mexico or to enter the OPEC, or to lower oil extracting levels, to demonstrate solidarity with cartel. If these three countries refuse the introduction into the OPEC, they should lower oil-extracting levels, has told Helil. Disappointment deliveries and decrease in oil extracting by the OPEC countries as a whole on 2 million barrels a day this year till now could not stop fall in prices on petroleum from maxima above 145 dollars for barrel in July as economic prospects remain gloomy. Traders also doubt that members of the OPEC can fulfill the promises to reduce export. Traders will manage to look again at the petroleum market of the USA on Wednesday when there are given governments. Analysts, expect, that during a week on November, 22-28th crude oil stocks in the USA have increased by 1,4 million barrels, petrol stocks - on 700 000 barrels, and stocks of distillates remained without changes. Level of congestion of oil refining capacities, probably, has grown on 0,2 percentage items and has made 86,4 %.

Recommendations about trade Crude Oil.
The petroleum price decreased at the auctions on Monday and still bargains within the limits of an intermediate term descending trend and is below sliding average with the period 55 on the day schedule (level 75.20) and it gradually decreases that is very negative factor for a petroleum price and possesses to the further falling of the price. The petroleum price has punched a line of a long-term ascending trend. The petroleum price bargains also below sliding average with the period 55 on the week schedule (level 107.40) which has started to be developed gradually downwards, that possesses to the further falling of the price in long-term prospect. On the day schedule, indicator ADX indicates that sliding averages disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a descending trend thus has grown for the last trading session and makes 49 items that indicates strengthening /a descending/ trend in the market. On 4-hour schedule, indicator ADX indicates to us that sliding averages disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a trend thus grows and makes 41 items that indicates strengthening /a descending/ trend in the market in short-term prospect.

The negative factor for players on increase is at that, that the petroleum price bargains below sliding average with the period 55 on 4-hour schedule (level 52.15 see on 4-hour schedule) which represents itself as resistance to the price in short-term prospect. Lines Bollinger Bands on 4-hour schedule are developed downwards, as well as on day, that indicates that in the market most possibly further price cut in intermediate term prospect. While the petroleum price bargains below a minimum of this year (85.37), it possesses to the further decrease. The petroleum price bargains below sliding average with the period 55 on the week schedule (level 107.40). The Petroleum price at the auctions on Monday has punched the bottom border of a range 50-55$. Support at level 50$ for barrel was a serious technological level (it is possible to tell a crossroads) in price movement, and now most possibly further decrease in area of support 41$ for barrel where price consolidation most likely will begin. If it does not occur, we will see 25$ for barrel. Resistance levels: 50.0, 52.15, 55.0, 60.0, 68.50, 70.35, 75.20, 77.27, 92.60, 98.80, 107.40. Support levels: 41.0, 25.0.

Gold
Futures for gold on Tuesday have returned a part lost in the afternoon before items at the expense of euro and equity market strengthening. Quotations of February futures on gold following the results of the auctions on COMEX, division of the New York commodity exchange, have grown for 6,50 dollars to 783,30 dollars for ounce. Strengthening has occurred at the expense of growth of stock quotes and relative weakness of dollar against euro. Soon after hours the auctions on gold, the euro/US dollar pair has grown to 1,2712 with 1,2606 on Monday evening. In the meantime, Dow bargained with increase on 32 items, after growth more than on 200 items earlier during session. Recently the prices for precious metals often follow shares as the markets of assets are focused on probability of a deflation and falling demand.

Assets move in a tandem under the influence of deflationary aspect, thanks to opinion, that all relapses, whether it be a bread loaf, milk gallon, a gold bar, or shares. Besides, gold has tested technical jump out after the massed sales on Monday. All it occurs against rather low volume of the auctions. Short-term support for February futures for gold is possessed in the field of minima of the last two days 768 and 761,80 dollars. Short-term resistance is in area of 785-790 dollars for ounce.

Recommendations about trade (Gold).
The gold price has grown at the auctions on Tuesday. Sliding averages on indicator ADX on 4 hour schedule disperse in favor of decrease. Force of a trend thus has slightly decreased and makes 38.0 items that indicates insignificant decrease /the bear/ spirit in the market in short-term prospect. The negative factor for /bulls/ is now at that, that the gold price bargains below sliding average with the period 55 on 4 hour schedule (level 800.0) which acts now as resistance to a gold price in short-term prospect (see on 4 hour schedule). Corridor Bollinger Band continues to be developed upwards on the day schedule, and on 4-hour schedule downwards, that indicates high probability of recovery of price in intermediate term prospect.

At the auctions on Monday the gold price /has found/ support at level idle time sliding average on the day schedule (level 763.3) and has made a start from it upwards. On day schedule, ADX indicates that sliding averages mutually decrease. Force of a trend thus dies away and makes 21 item that indicates absence /the accurate/ tendency in the market. On the day schedule, also it is visible, that the gold price on former bargains below sliding average with period 55 (level 822.0), that does not promote the further recovery of price. For growth continuation it is necessary, that the gold price was fixed above the given level then level 885$ as approximately at this level there passes a line of an intermediate term descending trend can become the increase purpose.

The gold price also still bargains below level 896.0$ for ounce where average passes sliding with the period 55 on the week schedule (see the week schedule) that promotes price falling in long-term prospect. In the circumstances the gold price remains in a range 768-822$ for ounce. As a whole, the technical picture in the gold market still possesses to falling in long-term prospect. Support levels: 768.5, 720.0, 682.5, 640.0. Resistance levels: 800.0, 798.0, 822.0, 830.0, 885.0, 896.0, 907.5, 920.0.